From stubbornly high living costs to a softer labor market, economists say these are the forces that will shape the year ahead.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that although "the tariff shock is smaller than originally announced", it is a key reason why it now expects the rate of global economic growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026. A year ago, it predicted a 3.3% expansion this year.

Economists may have a pretty dismal record with predictions. But we're still interested in what they see in their non-existent crystal balls.

Most adults (68 percent) now say economic conditions are getting worse, compared with 29 percent who think they’re improving, according to Gallup. That gap has widened since the beginning of 2025.

The services sector of the economy expanded at its fastest pace all year in December, while manufacturing continued to struggle according to a pair of reports.

The court is expected to rule in days or weeks. A clean outcome — either fully endorsing or decisively rejecting the administration’s rationale — is possible but unlikely. More probable is a muddled decision that upholds some authorities while narrowing others. That ambiguity would ripple outward.

President Donald Trump says he expects to nominate a new Federal Reserve chair this month. When that happens, Trump will have run out of excuses: This will officially become his economy, for better or worse.

The White House has been quite eager to tout that data because U.S. markets appear to be up—a fair bit. Aides often crow about new market highs. And Trump often claims that the United States is “the hottest country anywhere in the world,” and that all foreign leaders admit it.

The economy in 2025 was filled with contradictions, as growth was healthy while hiring slowed, inflation stayed elevated and unemployment rose.

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